Market weakness intensifies
Envelope volumes declining across Europe
In the second quarter of 2025, the volume of envelopes sold in Europe fell by almost 12% compared to the second quarter of 2024. The FEPE statistics show 6.6 billion units in the second quarter of 2025, the lowest quarterly volume ever recorded by the association. The half-year comparison also shows a significant decline. At 14.3 billion units, the volume in the first six months was 8.8% lower than the previous year (-1,4 billion pcs.).
After the comparatively good first nine months of 2024, a deterioration in the market climate had already become apparent in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a decline of 5%. This negative trend then continued in the first quarter of 2025 with a decline of over 7%, although the elections in Germany significantly mitigated the decline for some manufacturers.
However, as EUWID reported at the beginning of the second quarter, following the flash in the pan of the German elections, there was “a veritable slump in volumes.” This slump in volumes has now been confirmed in the quarterly statistics of the FEPE. Volumes are now declining sharply in almost all regions of Europe. Even in the traditionally weak third quarter, a sustained improvement in the situation is not expected.
A recovery in volumes could only occur after the summer holidays in the fourth quarter, provided the economic conditions permit.
The reason for the deteriorating industry sentiment across Europe is not only the poor economic situation in many market segments but also the ongoing trend toward digital media. While online advertising continues to grow, print media is increasingly being avoided by agencies. The advantages of print advertising, including sales letters, are largely ignored by agencies or are no longer even known to them.
In Germany, the introduction of mandatory e-invoicing is also having an increasingly negative impact. Tax advisors and auditors are encouraged to urge their clients to quickly switch to e-invoicing. Increased postage rates and the deterioration in the quality of postal services are also contributing to a decline in mail volumes.
Public authorities are also increasingly trying to convert more services to digital communication, even though it is known that around 37 million Europeans between the ages of 16 and 74 still have no internet access and cannot be reached digitally as offline users.
The only positive aspect is the unchanged stable paper prices, which, contrary to original expectations, will not significantly change in the third quarter.
For all the reasons mentioned above, a further decline in the volume of envelopes is expected for 2025, by approximately 8 – 9% to around 32.5 billion (including non-FEPE members).
Volume shifts from Mayer-Kuvert network to Encore Ltd. have already been taken in account in this statistic.
After the Europe-wide declines in 2022 and 2023, the e-commerce sector will experience inflation-adjusted growth for the first time in 2025. However, the slight increase in the volume of e-commerce packaging will by no means be enough to offset the decline in the mail communication segment of FEPE members.
