Weak Market Environment
The weak market environment in 2025 once again presented the European envelope industry with significant challenges.
After a slight recovery at the beginning of 2024, the negative trend had already become apparent in the fourth quarter of 2024 with a 5% decline in volume.
This negative market development continued throughout 2025 with a decrease of around 8%, although the elections in Germany significantly mitigated the decline for some manufacturers.
However, as early as the beginning of the second quarter, EUWID reported a “real slump in volume.”
The declining volumes were then confirmed in the subsequent quarterly statistics from FEPE. The months of July and August, in particular, were extremely weak in almost all European regions.
The traditionally strong fourth quarter ultimately failed to bring the recovery hoped for by all market participants.
E-Invoicing Accelerates Volume Decline
The reason for the deteriorating sentiment in the industry is, of course, not only the weak economic situation in many market segments, but also the ongoing trend toward digital media. While online advertising continues to grow, agencies are increasingly avoiding print media. The proven advantages of print are largely ignored by agencies.
The introduction of mandatory electronic invoicing in some European regions is already having a noticeably negative impact on volume development.
More regions are expected to follow soon, even though the technical requirements are often not yet in place everywhere.
Widespread increases in postage costs and the declining quality of postal services are also contributing to a decrease in letter volume.
On the other hand, the consistently stable paper prices are a positive factor, supporting the margins of our member companies.
For all the aforementioned reasons, a further decline in letter volume of 8% to around 27,7 billion is expected for 2025 (only FEPE members). The figures for the complete market, including also non-FEPE members will decrease to 32,5 billion pcs. (35,5).
Growing Importance of E-Commerce
In light of declining letter volumes across Europe, the e-commerce sector is becoming increasingly important for our member companies.
After the declines of previous years, inflation-adjusted growth was recorded again for the first time in 2025. However, the slight growth of approximately 4% in European e-commerce packaging volume is by no means sufficient to compensate for the decline in the postal shipping segment of FEPE members.
Furthermore, it should be noted that a considerable portion of this growth is attributable to Chinese providers such as Shein and Temu, which achieved double-digit growth in 2025.
The customs duty of €3 for small parcels, which will apply from July 2026, will hopefully help to strengthen the position of regional European industry and our local e-commerce companies.